Caught in the Crossfire: The impact of Israel-Iran War on Iraq
How did we get here?
On 13 June 2025, a sharp escalation between Iran and Israel began, marked by sustained exchanges of rocket fire, airstrikes, and drone attacks, plunging the region into precarity. For Iraq, the fallout is immediate and complex. Caught between the strategic ambitions of Tehran and Washington, Iraq now faces renewed external pressure and growing political uncertainty as it prepares for parliamentary elections in November 2025.
Iraq has long been a key arena for Iranian influence, but the outbreak of war has exposed just how vulnerable its political and security landscape remains to regional developments. Iranian-aligned Shia militias in Iraq have already pledged support to Tehran, and the Coordination Framework - the dominant Shia political bloc - has called for country-wide protests in solidarity with Iran.
On 16 June, the Shia Coordination Framework met to discuss the deteriorating regional situation. The group has called for mass protests and threatened to retaliate if the US becomes embroiled in the conflict between Israel and Iran (Source: Al-Awsat).
Analysts warn that should the United States become directly involved in the conflict, Iraqi militias aligned with Tehran may retaliate by targeting American diplomatic, military, or commercial interests across Iraq. This would risk dragging the country into a broader conflict at the expense of its sovereignty and stability.
The security environment is also shifting. Armed groups such as Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba have increased their public visibility, calling for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the country. This militarization, especially during an election cycle, threatens to intimidate both political competitors and voters, undermining the democratic process.
Reassessing Tehran’s Role in Iraq Ahead of the 2025 Elections
As Iraq prepares for its pivotal parliamentary elections in November 2025, the question of Iranian influence looms large. For nearly two decades, Tehran has been a dominant player in Iraqi politics, leveraging religious, military, and economic ties to shape outcomes in Baghdad. But recent developments, including the fall of the Assad Regime in Syria, suggest that Iran’s grip may be loosening and that Iraq is entering a new phase of political recalibration.
On the other hand, the war could play both ways. It may overstretch Iran’s regional posture and force it to disengage locally, or prompt Tehran to activate its network of loyal proxies in Iraq to pressure its adversaries and subsequently manage these regional fronts indirectly.
A mourner attends the funeral of a commander from Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah armed group who was killed in what they called a "Zionist attack" in the Syrian capital Damascus on Friday, during a funeral in Baghdad, Iraq September 22, 2024 (Source: Reuters).
Election Season
The November 2025 elections were already shaping up to be contentious due to widespread public disillusionment and fragmentation among traditional political elites. The Iran-Israel war now compounds these issues in several ways:
Militia Interference: With Tehran focused on an existential fight, its proxies in Iraq may become more assertive in shaping electoral outcomes, either by pressuring candidates, dominating media narratives, or suppressing reformist voices under the pretext of national security.
Managing Tehran’s Strategy: Iran’s war posture may limit its direct electoral micromanagement but increase reliance on informal levers of influence through the PMF and political alliances. Tehran has reportedly urged the Coordination Framework to present a united front post-election, focusing not on full electoral engineering, but on ensuring control over key power posts (presidency, premiership, speakership).
Popular Pushback: The Iraqi public, especially young people and reformist circles, have grown increasingly anti-interventionist. Any visible attempt by Iran or its allied militias to sway the election may provoke backlash, further energizing support for independent and anti-establishment candidates.
Escalation Risks: If militias act against U.S. targets and a tit-for-tat dynamic ensues, election logistics could be threatened, particularly in areas where security deteriorates. This could lead to low turnout, delays, or compromised credibility.
Changing of the Guard: Iran’s Shifting Role
Historically, Iran played a decisive role in orchestrating Shia political unity in Iraq, especially during election seasons. The late Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani was central to this effort, often shuttling between Tehran and Baghdad to broker alliances and resolve disputes among Shia factions. His assassination by the U.S. in January 2020 marked a turning point.
Since then, his successor, Esmail Qaani, has struggled to replicate Soleimani’s influence. As a direct result, Iran’s ability to “synchronize” Shia political behaviour has diminished significantly. The once-frequent Iranian diplomatic visits to Baghdad during pre-election periods have become rare, and observers note a conspicuous absence of Iranian pressure in shaping electoral coalitions this year. While Qaani lacks Soleimani’s charisma and direct involvement, Iran’s embedded advisory networks and intelligence apparatus remain active, albeit more discreetly than before.
Qassem Soleimani was killed in an airstrike, dealing a critical blow to Iraq’s political infrastructure. His successor, Esmail Qaani, has been less than effective at shoring up political allegiances across the border (Source: Axios).
Key Factors Behind Iran’s Retreat
Several interlocking factors explain this strategic quiet from Iran in Iraq:
Internal Priorities: Iran is currently preoccupied with the war with Israel and more focused on preserving its regime than on micromanaging Iraqi politics.7
Regional Setbacks: Iran’s regional axis has suffered major blows. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria, the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon (especially after the death of Hassan Nasrallah), and the decimation of Hamas in Gaza have all forced Tehran to adopt a more defensive, reactive, posture.
The Rise of the Coordination Framework: The pro-Iranian Shia bloc, which has increasingly dominated domestic politics in Iraq, has the potential to outgrow its masters in Tehran, reducing the need for Tehran to intervene directly. With the absence of major opposition forces like the Sadrist Movement, intra-Shia competition has become more manageable, at least on the surface.
A tower in Tehran, struck by an Israeli missile (Source: Link)
Strategic Patience or Tactical Withdrawal?
Despite hints of a strategic retreat, Iran has not abandoned the field. Sources from within Iraq’s major Shia political decision-making circles report that Tehran conveyed a message urging post-election unity among Coordination Framework factions. This suggests a shift from active engineering of alliances to a more passive role of “guardian of the arena.”
Analysts believe that Iran’s influence will likely be limited to shaping the “three presidencies” (President, Prime Minister, Speaker of Parliament), rather than the intricate details of government formation. This is attributed to both the absence of Muqtada al-Sadr and the erosion of electoral legitimacy under Iraq’s current voting laws. But this strategy carries risks. A fragmented Shia bloc, combined with a more assertive Iraqi electorate, could produce a parliament less amenable to Iranian interests. If the regional war escalates further, election timelines in Iraq could come under strain, raising questions about Tehran’s fallback plan: would it back a caretaker extension, or seek to reshape the Coordination Framework’s internal hierarchy to maintain influence amid instability? Moreover, the U.S. may play a more active role in supporting electoral transparency, potentially curbing Tehran’s manoeuvrability.
Iraqi populist leader Muqtada Al-Sadr delivers a televised speech in Najaf, Iraq August 3, 2022 (Source: Reuters). After the last election, Al-Sadr withdrew from political life. A nationalist, populist, conservative Shia cleric, he fell out with the Shia Coordinating Framework, who refused to accept his election victory, and remains an authoritative voice in Iraq’s domestic policy map.
The PMF and the Politics of Loyalty
Despite these setbacks, Iran is not going quietly. The PMF, a constellation of mostly Shia militias with deep ties to Tehran, remains a powerful force in Iraqi politics. A Brookings report warns that the PMF is increasingly acting as a parallel state, undermining Iraq’s sovereignty and democratic institutions. With the elections approaching, Iran is expected to use its influence within the PMF to shape candidate lists, broker alliances, and suppress dissenting voices. Yet, internal divisions within the PMF, primarily over its leadership and the PMF Service and Retirement Law, are becoming more pronounced. This fragmentation could limit Tehran’s ability to act as a unified kingmaker in the upcoming vote.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi attends a military parade for the members of Iraqi Popular Mobilization Force, marking its eighth anniversary, in Diyala province, Iraq. July 23, 2022. Iraqi Prime Minister Media Office/Handout via REUTERS.
Public Sentiment and the Rise of Independent Voices
Perhaps the most significant shift is happening at the grassroots level. Iraq’s youth-led protest movements, which began in 2019 and continue to simmer, have consistently called for an end to foreign interference, whether from Iran or the U.S. These sentiments are echoed in recent polling, which shows growing support for independent candidates and reformist parties. This anti-interventionist mood is not lost on Iraqi politicians. Even traditionally pro-Iranian figures are now tempering their rhetoric, aware that overt alignment with Tehran could be a liability at the ballot box.
The so-called Tishreen Protests of 2019 are still a powerful force in Iraqi politics (Source: International Crisis Group).
Conclusion: At a Strategic Crossroads
The Iran-Israel war will likely upended Iraq’s political landscape at a critical moment. With elections approaching, the country is now navigating a volatile mix of external pressure, internal fragmentation, and popular demands for sovereignty.
Whether Iraq can hold credible elections amid such turmoil will depend on several factors: the restraint of armed groups, the capacity of state institutions to secure the process, and the political will of Iraqi leaders to resist foreign manipulation.
For Iran, Iraq may no longer be a sandbox for political engineering. Instead, it may become a test of whether Tehran can retain influence through indirect means - without alienating an increasingly nationalist and weary Iraqi public.
For Iraqis, the choice is starker than ever: slide further into regional conflict, or emerge with stronger institutions, autonomous politics, and a renewed commitment to self-determination.