Two Fronts, One Crisis: How Regional and Domestic Pressures Are Converging on Yemen
Developments inside and outside Yemen in recent weeks are threatening to reignite the country’s domestic and regional conflicts. Further escalation risks undermining the modest progress made toward a negotiated political settlement, and could upend an informal Saudi-Houthi truce that has been in place since 2022.
Domestically, a recent outbreak of deadly fighting and escalating rhetoric threatens further conflict. Regionally, the apparent collapse of last month’s US-Iran ceasefire and the resumption of attacks between the two countries carry serious implications for Yemen, its neighbours, and possibly global trade.
In a statement following the announcement of the US-Iran ceasefire, Houthi President Mahdi Al-Mashat congratulated Iran on its victory and articulated lessons learned from the war. He emphasised that the next stage of fighting will require “more vigilance” and “the strengthening of force in the face of upcoming challenges.”
The US “does not adhere to agreements,” he claimed. “Iran’s victory confirms that the enemy [America and Israel] only understands the language of force, and that the policy of surrendering leads to nothing but further aggression and exploitation.”
According to a high-level diplomat who spoke to ARK, “the Houthis may now be emboldened after seeing that the Iranian regime survived its war with the US, and they will learn from Iran’s negotiations.”
Reflecting their renewed confidence, the Houthis are now ramping up their threats against Saudi Arabia in the hopes of alleviating the blockade imposed on them by the Kingdom. Houthi rhetoric towards Saudi Arabia has noticeably sharpened in recent weeks, with threats being issued by Houthi-aligned media against the Saudi economy and potential targeting of oil infrastructure. According to one member of the Houthis’ Supreme Political Council, the US and Israel will not be able to protect the Saudis in the event of renewed Houthi targeting.
As many observers have pointed out, the Houthis are well-positioned to leverage their proximity to Bab Al-Mandeb strait, and may seek to restrict shipping traffic in order to apply pressure on global and regional adversaries, including Saudi Arabia, just as they did throughout 2024-25.
Saudi Arabia has said that it will respond with “unprecedented force” to any and all attempts to target the Kingdom.
Further heightening Saudi-Houthi tensions was the arrival of an Iranian civilian aircraft in Sanaa on 3 July, which transported a Houthi delegation to Tehran for Ayatollah Khamenei’s funeral. The Houthis praised the arrival of the Iranian flight as successfully breaking the Kingdom’s blockade, claiming that Saudi warplanes failed in their attempts to stop the plane’s arrival. The Houthis say that Tehran-Sanaa flights will continue.
These escalations may jeopardise the de facto truce between the Saudis and the Houthis, and the possibility of a political settlement in Yemen. A resumption of attacks between the two parties would represent a significant step backwards in Yemen’s war and would further destabilise the region.
Domestically, intense fighting broke out between the Houthis and forces aligned with the internationally recognised government in southern Al-Hodeida governorate after the Houthis temporarily seized government positions near Jabal Dabbas last Saturday. The resulting clashes—reportedly some of the deadliest in recent years—killed and injured dozens of pro-government soldiers and an unknown number of Houthis fighters.
But even amidst the fighting, there are signs of diplomatic breakthroughs. In May, the warring parties reached a historical agreement for the release of 1,700 prisoners and detainees from both sides, including a number of Saudis. This prisoner swap is due to take place imminently, with some reports saying the first steps will occur tomorrow, 11 July. , but fighting and escalating rhetoric could still threaten it.
A peaceful settlement to the overall conflict still appears distant. Political rifts are deepening and there is growing distrust between all parties, especially in recent years.
According to the high-level diplomat, “the biggest obstacle [to a negotiated settlement in Yemen’s war] is the lack of trust between each stakeholder. Now, this is deeply pronounced in a way it wasn’t in 2023 [prior to 7 October]. There is also a deep sense of mistrust from the Saudis to the Houthis. There are serious question marks about whether the Houthis, if they enter negotiations, will implement what they agree to. Are they engaging in good faith? An agreement that could have happened in 2023 is not realistic now.”
For the time being, the Houthis and Saudis appear reluctant to break the truce; both sides have much to lose if fighting resumes. At the same time, the Houthis believe that the status quo of blockade and economic isolation is not sustainable for them, and the prospect of a favourable negotiated settlement may feel more distant than ever.