The Fall of Mokha: What the Houthi Advance Means for Red Sea Security
In one of the most significant territorial shifts in Yemen’s war in recent years, the Houthis seized the Red Sea port city of Mokha from pro-government forces yesterday. If the Houthis manage to maintain control of Mokha, their ability to disrupt international shipping through Bab Al-Mandab will increase. At the same time, the loss of this strategic city highlights the profound shortcomings of Yemen’s government forces and their backers.
Yemen has witnessed a surge of fighting in recent weeks between the Houthis and Saudi-backed pro-government forces. Ground fighting has broken out along frontlines, and Saudi airstrikes have targeted sites across Houthi-held governorates. The Houthis have retaliated with attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and shipping.
The latest fighting between the Saudis and the Houthis, which followed years of relative peace, was initiated after the Saudis helped block the arrival of an Iranian plane at Sana’a Airport in July. The Houthis then announced that the Saudi-enforced blockade on northern Yemen, in place since 2015, would be met with Houthi attacks on Saudi targets–“a blockade for a blockade” as the Houthis put it.
Yesterday’s events in Mokha carry global implications as the Houthis, allied with Iran, have secured more territory along the Red Sea coast near Bab Al-Mandab, a vital shipping lane. Today, it is reported that the Houthis have also captured Mayun, a strategic island in Bab Al-Mandab. With Bab Al-Mandab and the Strait of Hormuz firmly under Iranian Axis control, it is difficult to see a return to global shipping norms or an end to the US war with Iran on the horizon.
For Yemen, the intensive fighting domestically and with Saudi Arabia is unlikely to end soon. Experts agree that there are no likely offramps at this point, and the peace process has all but collapsed. The humanitarian costs have been, and will continue to be, immense. These are costs borne by a population that has been subjected to a decade of near famine, economic destitution, and the absence of basic services.
After capturing Mokha, the Houthis opened up government-run prisons to free their detained comrades. Houthi leadership was quick to issue statements promising presidential pardons for any pro-government fighters who laid down their arms, and they assured the international community that shipping in the Red Sea is secure and on schedule–in other words, “no need to intervene”. Other Houthi leaders reiterated that the fighting and the attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure would stop as soon as the “aggression and blockade ends”.
Houthi media outlets, commentators, and cartoonists are boasting of the group’s capture of Mokha, but the city’s seizure speaks less to the abilities of Houthi forces and more to the failings of government-aligned forces. For years, the internationally-recognised government of Yemen and their web of affiliated forces have suffered from unpreparedness, poor coordination, disputed authority, contradictory ideologies and goals, and literal infighting–in late 2025, the Saudi military and pro-government forces attacked positions of the Southern Transitional Council, a group headed by Aidrous Al-Zubaidi, a then-member of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council.
The retreat of pro-government forces (including the National Resistance Forces, the Shield Forces, and Giant’s Brigades) from Mokha has likely undermined morale and confidence, not only among the soldiers themselves, but among their Saudi backers who must be questioning how much they can rely on pro-government fighters to counter the Houthis.
Developments in Yemen are happening quickly, and the coming weeks may see further shifts in territorial control. The Houthis are likely emboldened, but will need to be cautious to not overstretch themselves. Some have speculated that the Saudis will call on allies to activate the Mecca Agreement, but this seems like a distant prospect. If shipping is further threatened, then the US could consider intervening. At the moment, the US does not want to be involved.
As always, the international community should be paying more attention to Yemen and investing in long-term solutions, not only in times like these, but also when there are periods of relative stability. The lesson from recent weeks is that Yemen’s conflict is not going to be resolved soon or on its own and in the meantime it will continue to impact global security.