Political Victories in the US-Houthi Truce
The declared cessation of attacks represents a political victory for both the Trump Administration and the Houthis. The Trump Administration can claim success in finally dissuading the Houthis from continuing their attacks against commercial shipping, while the Houthis can boast that they remained steadfast while facing down the strongest military in the world.
But neither of these narratives tell the full story.
A Ceasefire Framed as a Victory
This truce, while offering a much-needed respite for Yemeni civilians bearing the brunt of airstrikes, may not be the victory that President Trump is claiming it to be. So what did his administration gain from this agreement?
Despite the ceasefire, the Houthis posture defiance.
Houthi leader Abdulmalik Al-Houthi rejected President Trump’s claims, labelling the US President an infidel, clown, and a criminal (Source: Twitter).
A commitment by the Houthis that they would cease targeting commercial ships in the Red Sea. But there are a couple problems with this–first, Houthi targeting of ships declined considerably at the end of 2024, and there has not been an example of a successful attack on a commercial ship for many months. Second, anyone familiar with the Houthi playbook knows that a ceasefire is not a permanent solution.
Tactical Pause or Strategic Reset?
The Houthis are known to use peacetime to regroup and potentially strategize about how to better protect themselves from future attacks. Although the Houthis have temporarily committed to cease targeting, the group maintains the capabilities to resume attacks in the future.
This is a card they may choose to play when circumstances call for it.
Signs of Strain and Houthi Response
Nonetheless, the Houthis have certainly suffered from continuous US bombardment that has targeted infrastructure, military leaders, and weapons storage. This week, an intensive Israeli bombardment also damaged Sanaa Airport and infrastructure in Al-Hodeida. The Houthis are intent on hiding these vulnerabilities, but the cracks were beginning to show. An intensely paranoid campaign discouraging any information sharing by civilians was promoted in March and April across Houthi media platforms.
Controlling the Narrative
Now that they are no longer being targeted by the US, the Houthis have seized this moment to project an image of triumph. Abdulmalik Al-Houthi's recent speech underscored that they have stood firm against the United States, proving their commitment to their stated goal of defending Gaza. This narrative resonates deeply with their support base and bolsters their regional standing as an unyielding force. Their ability to seemingly compel the US to halt its airstrikes is portrayed as a clear victory, reinforcing their anti-imperialist rhetoric and enhancing their credibility within the broader resistance axis.
Houthi fighters gather outside Sana’a in January 2024 (Source: Associated Press)
Moreso than the US, the Houthis are positioned to capitalize on their story of success. A few events in recent months have contributed to a powerful narrative for Houthi media networks to grab onto, which portrays US forces as incompetent. The Houthis boast of having downed at least seven American MQ-9 Reaper drones this year, totalling $200 million. On 28 April, the embattled USS Harry S Truman came under Houthi fire. Swerving to avoid a missile, a $67 million F-18 jet rolled off the carrier and sunk into the Red Sea. This happened again a week later when a jet failed to land on the USS Truman. Even in the aftermath of the ceasefire agreement, President Trump cited the Houthis’ “bravery,” while the Houthis called out American cowardice.
Beyond the Truce
The Houthis have made it clear, even since the ceasefire was announced, that they will continue to target Israeli interests. As we witnessed earlier this week, Israel will quickly and harshly respond to any Houthi attack that manages to penetrate their defences. So is the outlook continued escalation between Israel and the Houthis, with the United States sitting on the side lines? It may be too early to tell. The long-term implications of this ceasefire tilt heavily in favour of the Houthis. Over the years, the group has not defeated their enemies, but they have exhausted them. Saudi Arabia is apparently unwilling to rejoin the fight against them, and its Gulf partners likewise have no appetite to battle the group.
Now, the United States has also learned that a bombing campaign might shake the Houthis, but it won’t topple them.